DISQUS

AntiManu · 1 year ago

So you are proposing a 3 tiered league then. 1&2, 3&4 and the rest. It is a shame that the top 4 qualify for the Champions League for if it was 3 or 5 it would add spice to the 2nd and 3rd tiers..... if you see what I mean.

Phil McThomas · 1 year ago

I agree with this - Man Utd and Chelsea will consolidate further. I don't see Arsenal or Liverpool challenging.

I did a related post in March on the predictability in the top-4. In the last five years, only five different teams have been in the top-4 (Everton were the lone exception to the usual procession).

More worrying is that once a team becomes estabilished in the top-4 for five consecutive years, they never leave.

This emerging trend of the top-2 becoming unshakable is worry.

Here is the post I referenced:

http://soccershout.com/2008/03/28/premeir-leagu...

jm · 1 year ago

I find it strange that Arsenal is an essential afterthought in this piece, but since it is obviously a polemic and not an argument that can perhaps be forgiven.

I think it is probably right that Manchester United and Chelsea have to be the picks for the top two spots; but that is no shock. I imagine most commentators would agree. But we have to be careful in parsing our claims. They are clear favorites, but by no means is it decided. The piece concentrates on Liverpool, so I'll talk about Arsenal to try and round it out.

The only real analysis of Arsenal to be found here is the following claim:

" Arsenal have Fabregas and Adebayor, so they also need some more world-class players."

I assume that this is supposed to read "have only" and imply that they are the only two world-class players and that two world-class players is an insufficient number. Well, let's look more closely at the club.

This past season, they fell 4 points shy of Manchester United, and led the league for long stretches. Ultimately, they had a dip in quality, exacerbated by a thin squad, and United deservedly won the title ahead of them. This, with the same number of "world-class" players as they have now (by author's definition). They lost two quality players - Hleb and Flamini, one seasoned backup - Gilberto, brought in a youngster (Ramsey), and a young attacking midfielder (Nasri).

Obviously, we cannot evaluate the team fully as it stands now, since Wenger has stated he wants to bring in another midfielder - presumably someone to partner with Fabregas and play a bit more of a holding midfield role. If we presume that this signing performs at a slightly lower level than Flamini, and that Nasri performs at a lower level than Hleb (both for arguments' sake), the club might be a bit worse off. They will have slight downgrades at two starting positions, and the depth problems will remain. On the other hand, if they have more players fit this season (van Persie, Rosicky, Eduardo), then Nasri in particular will have less of a burden placed on him to replace Hleb. Further, with such a young team, one might reasonably expect more players to improve this season than to decline.

So where is Arsenal FC? Depending on who else they sign, they look a lot like they did last year. They are betting on the improvement of their young players with another year under their belts. Given that they were only four points off the pace last year, it seems they have a reasonable shot at challenging this season, particularly if they have better luck with injuries this season and players continue to progress.

Does that make them the favorite? Of course not. As I stated at the outset, United and Chelsea are and should be the favorites for the league title this year. One does not predict where teams will finish under the presumption "if things go their way." However, one can predict an interesting title challenge under that presumption. Arsenal (and also Liverpool, though I have not focused on them here) have the players to win the league.

Will they? If I were a betting man I'd ask for longer odds than on United or Chelsea, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out.

Brian · 1 year ago

This year *could* also see one of the big four threatened. Who are the threats? Premiership Talk highlights Tottenham, Blackburn, Everton, Aston Villa, and Portsmouth. Check out the article here:
http://www.premiershiptalk.com/2008/07/premiers...

Hank · 1 year ago

I think JM hits the mark - both in terms of analysis and conclusion.

It's easy to forget that Arsenal was at the top of the table for a large part of last season.

Also, I'm not sure if I'd still class Scholes and Giggs with the other "major" threats listed. Great players, but I think age may be catching up.

Chris · 1 year ago

I'll get in my time machine and tell Arsene Wenger that despite having 83 points in 04/05 that he actually finished behind Man Utd and their 76 points. =)

I'm a Liverpool fan, and I actually think they have a better chance of breaking into the top 2 and mounting a real title challenge this season than they did for the last few seasons. Liverpool lost their way after Daniel Agger broke his metatarsal last October, and didn't fully recover until Martin Skrtel showed up in January. They had a lot of dumb points dropped over that period (Reading away/Wigan Home/Aston Villa Home/West Ham Away).

It will still be tough to get into the Top 2, but I don't think the gap is as big as most people on this site seem to think it is.

Phil McThomas · 1 year ago

Lads - great analysis in the blog comments here. This is when blogs work the best - not name-calling, but pointing out errors and adding layers of analysis to the original.

Gaffer - Sign "JM" on an Arsenal correspondent!

Michael · 1 year ago

Chris, I have to tell you, there's no shame in dropping points at home to Aston Villa and at West Ham (when a big club comes to Upton Park, West Ham comes out to play). I wouldn't even go as far as to call it "dropping point", but Liverpool drew way too many games at Anfield against poor teams, and that was their downfall.

Sam · 1 year ago

Agree. Both of those 2 are much better than the rest. Much more depth, better managers (Arsene still top stuff) and better experience.

I think Liverpool can finish 6th or so.

Lonnie · 1 year ago

I really think that Arsenal were hard done by last year -- mostly by the media. They were written off to start the year, praised through the roof when they exceeded the media's expectations and then slagged when they faltered down the stretch due to a combination of injuries and the lack of experienced quality on the bench. It was really a telling picture of how the mainstream media operate.

dd · 1 year ago

i man united will win and arsenal will come 2nd, chelsea will finish 3rd