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they only beat france on penalties at the World cup 2006, then lost 3-0 at Stade de France and drew 0-0 in Italy for their European qualifiers.
If your prediction for a semi-final France-Italy is correct, France has more chance to score 1-0 than Italy. If it goes to penalties, then Italy has a bigger chance to win because of Buffon.
As a Frenchman, I am going for France of course!
Germany is the team to beat.
The German midfield is going to be formidable and if Ballack stays healthy and in form there will be another source of goals.
I'm going to take an opportunity to give another plug to the Bundesliga. The Bundesliga will have the most players competing at the tournament with more than 50. The EPL and La Liga are a ways back with about 40 players. Serie A is contributing around 35 players.
This is based on a quick scan I did of final rosters on the UEFA.com site.
I'm not saying that those guys can't score, I'm saying I don't think they will with Portugal's strength in the center of their defensive third. Ballack and Toni are a notch above the players you just mentioned and can score in a variety of ways, and if Germany does manage to score, it will be through one (or both) of those two.